Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+?

A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Makerfield is currently scheduled to be held on June 18, 2026, following the announced resignation of incumbent Josh Simons. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Restore Britain candidate, Rebecca Shepherd, receives at least the listed percentage of the popular vote in the 2026 Makerfield by-election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The percentage of the popular vote will be calculated as number of valid votes received by Rebecca Shepherd divided by the number of total valid votes in the specified election. If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Wigan Council (https://www.wigan.gov.uk/).