The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027. 

This market will resolve according to the first individual publicly announced as the chosen candidate of the National Rally (Rassemblement National, RN) party for the 2027 French presidential election.

A qualifying announcement must explicitly identify the relevant individual as the National Rally Party’s candidate for the 2027 French presidential election.

If the National Rally party simultaneously announces multiple individuals as its candidates for the 2027 French presidential election, this market will resolve to “Multiple Candidates”.

If no qualifying announcement is made by the time the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election is released, this market will resolve to the National Rally candidate included on that list. If multiple National Rally candidates are included on that list, this market will resolve to “Multiple Candidates”. If no National Rally candidate is included on that list, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the National Rally party; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Jordan Bardella

Marine Le Pen

Multiple Candidates

2027 French Presidential Election: National Rally Candidate

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027. Prior to the election, the French Constitutional Council is expected to publish the official list of candidates to be included on the ballot for the first round of this election.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual is included on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If no such candidate list is published prior to the election, this market will resolve based on which candidates actually appear on the ballot when the election takes place. If no list is published and the specified election does not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official candidate list published by the French Constitutional Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Jean-Luc Mélenchon

Nathalie Arthaud

Édouard Philippe

2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier.

The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff second round.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to the second round of the next French presidential election or wins the election outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If no such election occurs or the results of the first round of this election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).

Gérald Darmanin

Sarah Knafo

Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round?

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027. 

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual publicly announces that they are running for President in the 2027 French presidential election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement by the listed individual of their candidacy will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually formally file their candidacy, or whether they actually appear on the ballot.

Statements that merely indicate the listed individual is considering a run, is expected to run, or is being discussed as a possible candidate will not be sufficient.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the listed individual; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

French Elections

2027 French Presidential Election: National Rally Candidate

2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?

Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round?

French Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026?